Baton Rouge, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

402
FXUS64 KLIX 210955
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
355 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

It`s been a chilly night for most of the region with some
locations in the upper 30s to lower 40s by 8z. Temps will likely
continue to fall a few more degrees but likely slowly as winds are
still around 25-30kts at 1k ft according to KHDC VWP.

They next 3 days will be on the cool side before we begin a slow
moderation for the 2nd half of the weekend and into Thanksgiving
week. But in the short term the forecast focus is on temps.
Amplified pattern aloft with a l/w trough over the eastern CONUS and
high pressure at the sfc driving south through the Plains will
remain in place through Saturday morning. This is setting up nicely
for a few days of slightly below normal temps with Saturday likely
being the coldest morning of the season so far. With the sfc high
still centered off to our ENE winds havenb`t completely decoupled
and winds just off the deck are still blowing pretty good. Despite
the low dewpoints and clear skies this is hurting the cooling off
potential this morning and with a reinforcing front overnight
tonight with much the same setup morning lows tomorrow morning will
likely be fairly similar to this morning. However, Saturday morning
should be a different story.

High pressure will continue to build south through the Lower MS
Valley all day Friday and Friday night sitting right over the area
Saturday morning. This should allow for a much lighter wind field.
Combine that with the low dewpoints and clear skies and we will have
a rather decent radiational cooling setup finally. In addition temps
will have a cooler jumping off point making it easier to drop
further in the evening. With that we continue to adjust temps down
below the NBM deterministic value which is above the 90th percentile
for most locations. The best approach was a combination of the NBM,
NBM50, and NBM25 which gets a few locations close to freezing but
not quite down to 32 yet. Obviously MCB is one of the cooler
locations but also the typical drainage locations in the Pearl and
Pascagoula drainage areas will fall into the mid 30s. In addition
the West Bank near NBG will likely drop into the upper 30s while New
Orleans and most of the metro remains in the mid to upper 40s.
/CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

The extended forecast shows a warmer and possibly slightly wetter
setup before Thanksgiving but looking past Tuesday the models are
really struggling with how to handle the pattern. The spread
between the 10th and 90th percentile in temps increases
SIGNIFICANTLY. With that confidence in the extended forecast past
Monday decreases and with the Will remain pretty tight the the
latest NBM.

Saturday and Sunday high pressure at the sfc will start to slide
east while the amplified pattern begins to flatten out. Temps start
top moderate Saturday night but more so during the day on Sunday as
highs could be 10 degrees warmer in some locations on Sunday.
Conditions continue to moderate heading into the new week as we
move under zonal flow aloft as early as Sunday night. Zonal flow
remains in place through Wednesday. At the same time high pressure
at the sfc remains off to the east with a weak boundary setting up
northwest of the area. With the pattern expected early next week
there is a small chance that we could see a few shots of light rain
as multiple weak impulses quickly move through the mean flow.

Just a quick look into Thanksgiving and after the forecast becomes
very uncertain as the models struggle to figure out the pattern but
there are indications that a weak front and slightly stronger s/w
could impact the area providing a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms and possibly even a risk of severe weather. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

No issues for terminals as skies remain clear and the dry
boundary layer conditions lead to no vsby concerns. VFR status
will remain in place through the forecast. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

High pressure centered over TX will continue to slide south. This
will keep a steady moderate to strong offshore wind over the region
today. A reinforcing cold front will also help to bump the winds
back up tonight but high pressure should finally settle in helping
to relax winds some tomorrow afternoon or evening allowing headlines
to finally drop off. High pressure slides east late Saturday with
return flow slowly setting back up. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  69  41  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  67  38  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  66  47  64  46 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  66  41  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  69  36  67  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB